There have already been a lot of changes in the solar market supply chain in 2026. The Australian solar industry is expected to see even further demand increases and solar panel prices rising throughout the year. Factors such as China’s decision to remove export rebates, higher silver prices, and the shift to newer panel technologies are reshaping the market of PV products.
This article breaks down the key factors driving solar panel price increases in 2026 and how they might affect Australian homeowners.
Why Panel Prices Are Changing
Price Increases of Raw Materials (Especially Silver)
The demand for solar panels has increased, which has led to increases in the demand for the raw materials used to make them as well. This means that some of these materials are getting more expensive. The soaring prices of silver, polysilicon, aluminium and glass are having a big impact on PV panel prices.
The recent silver price surge is especially impacting the selling price of PV modules. Towards the end of January 2026, the price of silver increased by over 8% in one day. In the last 12 months, silver prices have increased by 35% [1]. These increases carry over to the price of the finished product. Silver pricing will flow through to product pricing and eventually to the consumer at some point.
China Dropping Solar Export Tax Rebates in April
On 1st April 2026, the Chinese government is removing the value-added tax (VAT) export rebates for photovoltaic products [2]. Currently, when Chinese producers export goods, they can get back some or all of the value-added tax (VAT) they paid domestically on those products (about 9% for PV products). China has historically used these tax rebates to subsidise exports. This rebate is now being scrapped, meaning exporters can no longer claim the taxes back.
The vast majority of solar panels in Australia are manufactured in China. So in April, we can expect a further 9-10% increase in solar products. Battery products will also have their export rebates reduced from 9% to 6% in April, and they will also eventually be dropped by 1st January 2027.
Panel Suppliers Realigning Their Pricing
Solar manufacturers have been able to sell their products at near-break-even prices for some time. However, the compounding of the VAT removal and higher material costs has made maintaining these prices unsustainable. Solar installers are already seeing small increases in their pricing, and it’s expected to continue rising throughout the year. This is also in part due to the industry transitioning towards next-generation technologies such as TOPCon panels [3]. These panels are more efficient and have longer lifespans, but are more expensive to produce. So, households will see a small increase in the initial system costs, but their panels will perform better and will need to be replaced less frequently.
Other Factors Driving Price Increases
There are several other factors that also contribute to PV module price changes. These factors may have a small impact on their own, but when combined, there is a compounding effect that can lead to noticeable increases.
- Polysilicon Supply Dynamics: The Chinese government has gained control over polysilicon pricing. This has already led to the effective capacity of China’s polysilicon producers to drop [4]. Future impacts on availability and prices may cause higher costs to be passed down to panel prices.
- Currency & Exchange Rate Effects: Fluctuations in major currencies (e.g., USD & CNY) affect the cost of panels imported into Australia.
- Global Solar Demand Increase: Growing worldwide demand for solar and energy storage can pressure lead times and costs, especially when supply chains are centred in a few countries.
What This Means for Australian Households
The good news is that panels account for only 20-30% of the cost of a solar installation. Other factors include labour, inverters, racking and batteries. So, even if solar panel prices increased by 30%, homeowners would only see around a 2-5% increase in the price of their project.
Despite these small bumps in system costs, installing solar has never been more affordable. Australian consumers have access to stable federal and state solar incentives & rebates, making solar one of the best long-term investments available.
References:
[1] Trading Economics. (2026). Silver Price Chart Historical Data.
[2] Shaw, V. (2026). China to abolish solar export tax rebates in April. PV Magazine.
[3] L, A. (2025). The Solar Price No One Should Fear: Why Households Still Win in 2026. Energy Matters.
[4] OPIS. (2025). China module market watches 2026 export rebate signals as polysilicon consolidation platform company is registered. PV Magazine.